Rational Survivability

Joe Weinman wrote an interesting post in advance of his panel at Structure ’10 titled “The Cloud in the Enterprise: Big Switch or Little Niche?” wherein he explored the future of Cloud adoption.

In this blog, while framing the discussion with Nick Carr‘s (in)famous “Big Switch” utility analog, he asks the question:

So will enterprise cloud computing represent The Big Switch, a dimmer switch or a little niche?

…to which I respond:

I think it will be analogous to the “Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium,” wherein we see patterns not unlike classical dampened oscillations with many big swings ultimately settling down until another disruption causes big swings again.  In transition we see niches appear until they get subsumed in the uptake.

Or, in other words such as those I posted on Twitter: “…lots of little switches AND big niches“

Go see Joe’s panel. Better yet, comment on your thoughts here. 😉

/Hoff

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